Numbers through Thursday, October 22 (Day 3 of early voting). Six precincts: 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, and 37.
The board, precinct by precinct
The score at the top is just these six precincts added together. Every number is set inside a precinct's own panel below. Move a slider or change a number, and the score, the bank, and the votes needed to win all change with it. Each precinct's share slider stays inside the range the campaign's calls, survey, and text replies support.
The path to winning
The plan rests on four precincts reaching their target shares, with Precincts 25 and 26 held where they are. Each line shows the target, where that precinct's slider sits now, and how many votes the gap between them is worth.
Where one point is worth the most
Precincts ranked by what one point of vote share is worth in votes. A point in Precinct 28 is worth more than eight points in Precinct 27, so people and time go where the points are biggest first.
The Plan
What happens from now through Election Day, in order, in plain words.
Finish early voting: now through Tuesday, October 27
Early voting is at the Senior Citizen Center, 391 Cannery Road, Breaux Bridge. Open 8:30 in the morning to 6 in the evening. Closed Sunday, October 25.
Every morning, the list of who voted the day before comes in. Anyone who has voted comes off the call list for good.
Calls and texts go out before noon to supporters who have not voted yet: remind them early voting ends Tuesday, and ask if they need a ride.
Evening calls to supporters who still have not voted.
Sunday, October 25 the polls are closed. That is a full door-knocking day. Precinct 27 first, then Precinct 37.
Monday and Tuesday are the last two days. Same routine, and rides run all day both days.
If someone needs a ride, write down their name, address, phone number, and the day and time, and get it to Taylor the same day.
After early voting: Wednesday, October 28 through Monday, November 2
Only one group gets contacted in these days: supporters who have been identified and still have not voted.
Each of them gets one more phone call and one knock on the door.
Anyone who has voted is finished, no more contact.
Book Election Day rides as people ask for them, and get the details to Taylor the same day.
Election Day: Tuesday, November 3
Polls are open 6 in the morning to 8 in the evening.
One or two people knock on doors. Everyone else works the phones.
When the poll watcher list comes in during the day, supporters who still have not voted move to the top of the call list.
After 4 in the afternoon, split between doors and phones as needed. As it gets dark, shift to phones.
Phones and rides run until the polls close at 8.
Calling rules
If nobody answers, try again at a different time of day. Three tries in total, then one knock on the door, then one text, then stop.
Anyone who is for the other man, or who asks not to be called, is never contacted again.
Anyone who has voted comes off every list right away.
Who has voted so far: 2026 next to 2022
Party and race of the people who have voted early through Day 3, next to each precinct's full early vote in 2022. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding and smaller groups not shown.
The swing group: voters with no partyVoters with no party are 16.5% of early ballots so far, up from 12.7% in 2022: 158 ballots already in, against 176 in the whole 2022 early voting period. Nobody has a direct read on how they split, and in a race this close, how they break matters more than any single precinct's turnout effort except Precinct 28.
Precinct 37 has swung RepublicanRepublicans are 61% of Precinct 37's early voters, up from 54% in 2022, and the Democrat share fell from 39% to 24%. Right now that precinct is putting LeBlanc votes in the bank. Most of its voters have not voted yet, so the picture can still change.
Precinct 24: same mix, bigger numbersPrecinct 24's early voters look like 2022's: 66% Democrat, 67% Black. Only the size changed: 226 ballots in three days against 338 in all of 2022.